“The biggest shock to the global economy for decades.”* That’s how Rana Mitter, a leading scholar on china, described President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. Mitter’s assessment highlights the dramatic and disruptive nature of Trump’s trade policies, which, over the course of his presidency, have become one of his most consistent points of contention in his "America First" approach to foreign relations.
Since taking office, trump has made it clear that imposing steep tariffs on china and other trading partners is a core component of his strategy. The goal is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and bring more manufacturing jobs back to America. However, these policies have not only angered beijing, but also raised concerns within global markets, particularly over the potential for a prolonged trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
Despite this confrontational stance on trade, trump has also frequently emphasized what he perceives as a strong personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Speaking to *The Wall Street Journal*, trump once claimed that he wouldn’t need to use military force if beijing ever moved to blockade Taiwan, because, in his words, "the Chinese leader respects me and he knows I’m [expletive] crazy." This paradoxical mix of aggressive trade policy and personal diplomacy has defined much of Trump’s approach to China—blunt and combative in public, but accompanied by the hope that his personal rapport with Xi would somehow smooth over tensions.
However, this view is not without its critics. Many analysts, both in the U.S. and abroad, argue that such an approach is both shortsighted and dangerous. Trump’s tough rhetoric about China—coupled with his unpredictability—has left many in the business and diplomatic communities unsure of how to engage with the U.S. going forward. As Mitter points out, the stakes are high, and Trump’s “wildcard” approach to international relations could lead to significant risks, not just for china but for the world economy at large.
The Bipartisan Hawkish Stance
Though Trump’s policies have been controversial, he is not alone in his tough stance on China. Both leading Republicans and Democrats viewbeijing as a significant challenge. There is a consensus across the political spectrum that china is bent on becoming the dominant global power, challenging the U.S. both economically and militarily. Whether it’s through trade, military expansion in the South china Sea, or increasing its influence in global institutions, Beijing’s actions have raised alarm bells in Washington.
Despite these shared concerns, the differences in approach between the two parties are clear. Under a second trump administration, Mitter predicts that U.S.-China relations would remain volatile, with the potential for drastic shifts depending on Trump’s unpredictable nature. His ambivalence about the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan, for example, could leave the region in a state of uncertainty. Would he prioritize a negotiated deal with China? Or would his combative instincts lead to further escalation?
On the other hand, Mitter suggests that under a President Kamala harris, relations with china would likely proceed more predictably. harris, as a seasoned political figure, would likely continue the current trajectory of engagement with china, albeit with some adjustments. The key difference would be a more linear approach to diplomacy, rather than the abrupt shifts and uncertain tactics that have characterized Trump’s tenure.
A Small Group Favors the Unpredictable Trump
Despite the conventional wisdom that a more stable, predictable U.S. policy under harris would be preferable, there is also a significant minority who see Trump’s unpredictability as an asset. Mitter points out that some in the political and business establishment believe that a President trump might be more willing to cut a “grand bargain” with China—an outcome that, while unlikely, could deliver significant benefits for the U.S. in the long run.
This faction sees trump not just as a political leader, but as a businessman who might approach the relationship with china from a deal-making perspective. His willingness to break from conventional diplomatic norms, they argue, could lead to unexpected breakthroughs that a more traditional approach under harris might not.
Nevertheless, this view is in the minority, with many experts warning that Trump’s erratic policy decisions could undermine U.S. credibility and stability in the international arena.
The Bottom Line: Uncertainty Ahead
As the U.S. heads into the 2024 presidential election, the question of how to engage with china remains one of the most important issues in global geopolitics. Whether it’s Trump’s chaotic, transaction-driven approach or Harris’s more methodical, predictable strategy, the future of U.S.-China relations looks set to be a defining issue of the next administration. What is clear is that, regardless of who wins, both countries are poised to continue vying for global dominance, and the economic and political consequences of this rivalry will be felt far beyond their borders.
In the words of Mitter, the world will be watching closely, as the choices made in Washington could reshape the global order for decades to come.
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