The saying "a leopard cannot change its spots" aptly describes the persistent and strategic approach Modi and Shah employ to consolidate power. Their modus operandi often involves weakening regional parties that could challenge the BJP’s dominance. This involves a range of tactics, from political alliances and co-options to outright fragmentation and absorption of rival parties.
Naidu's Awareness and Fear
Naidu’s concerns are not unfounded. In conversations with author Kapil Komireddy, he expressed his fear that Modi and Shah would eventually seek to dismantle the TDP. This fear stems from witnessing the BJP's interactions with other regional parties:
Shiv Sena in Maharashtra:
- The shiv sena, a long-time ally of the bjp, saw its alliance strained after the 2019 maharashtra assembly elections. The BJP’s attempts to undermine the shiv sena led to the latter breaking away and forming a government with rival parties, the ncp and Congress.
- Subsequently, internal splits within shiv sena were fueled, leading to factionalism and weakening of the party.
- While the BJD, led by naveen Patnaik, has maintained a cautious distance from the bjp, there have been persistent efforts by the bjp to make inroads into Odisha. The BJP’s strategy involves strengthening its base and attempting to poach leaders from the BJD.
Janata Dal (United) in Bihar:
- The JD(U), led by nitish kumar, has had a tumultuous relationship with the BJP. After rejoining the NDA, Nitish found himself in a weakened position, with the bjp gradually asserting more control in Bihar.
- Eventually, the friction led to nitish kumar breaking ties with the bjp again and realigning with the RJD and Congress.
AIADMK in tamil Nadu:
- After the death of AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa, the party faced internal splits and leadership crises. The bjp has attempted to leverage these splits to its advantage, though with varying success.
The Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
The pattern observed across these cases indicates a standard operating procedure (SOP) used by Modi and Shah:
- Encouraging and exploiting internal divisions within regional parties.
-Absorbing influential leaders from rival parties into the BJP.
- Utilizing central agencies to apply legal and financial pressure on key leaders.
-Forming and breaking alliances based on electoral calculations.
The political maneuvers by Modi and Shah reflect a broader strategy to establish and maintain BJP’s dominance by weakening regional parties. Naidu’s fears about the survival of the tdp are grounded in the observable tactics employed against other regional parties. To counter this, Naidu needs to leverage his political acumen and experience to strengthen his party’s internal structure, build strategic alliances, and maintain a strong connection with the electorate. The road ahead is challenging, but with strategic foresight, Naidu can navigate these turbulent political waters.
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