With the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, set to release the results of its monetary policy meeting on september 18, market investors are eagerly awaiting an interest rate cut. As people from all walks of life expect this reduction in interest rates, it is predicted to have an impact on many sectors. The benchmark interest rate may be cut by 25 or 50 basis points at today's meeting. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 60% chance of a 50 basis point cut. However, leading economists forecast a 25 basis point cut from the current 5.25-5.50 percent.
Global financial markets are closely watching the Fed's decision as the intensity of interest rate cuts will influence the direction of stock markets in the coming days. Although interest rate cuts are often based on inflation, other important factors are also taken into account. As fears of a slowdown in employment grow, the prospect of a large interest rate cut has increased. However, economists expect interest rate cuts to be slow given the trend of the US economy. As a result, the Federal Reserve is expected to gradually lower its interest rates over time.
BofA Global Research's US economist Aditya Bhave predicted a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the september meeting. He insists the Fed is carefully monitoring the risks of the country's declining employment numbers. Also, interest rate cuts are not predetermined, everything changes depending on market conditions. With this, even if interest rates are not cut much now, additional interest rate cuts are possible in the coming monetary policy meetings. The key decision will be the Federal Open Market Committee members' vote count for a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting starting on the 16th. Although inflation has eased, the job market remains poor, which is currently seen as a major obstacle to further interest rate cuts.