Is America's recession a benefit to India? A shocking report..!
US President donald trump has started a large-scale trade war by increasing import duties on goods from various countries. The trump administration is preparing to impose competitive duties on goods imported from india from april 2. He has also announced that an additional 25 percent tax will be imposed on countries that import and use oil and gas from Venezuela. india is a country that can import oil from venezuela in large quantities. In 2024 alone, india imported and used 22 million barrels of oil. Trump's announcement will cause a big problem for oil refining companies to purchase oil from venezuela and refine and sell it. They will also have to spend more on oil purchases. On the one hand, there are reports that the possibility of an economic recession in the united states is increasing. If the global economy goes into recession, it will also be affected, but international brokerage firm Bernstein has said that if the US economy goes into recession, it will be positive for the indian economy. The US economy is currently facing a big problem due to various measures that trump may take after taking office. As various investors are selling their shares in the US stock market in large quantities, fears about the US economy have arisen all over the world. A recent study conducted by US financial institutions has said that the chance of the US economy going into recession within the next 12 months has increased by 43 percent. Many fear that the US economy may go into a state of instability due to increased unemployment and slow economic growth in the country. Meanwhile, experts say that the trump administration is imposing competitive tariffs on various countries further increasing this economic instability. Bernstein has said that the indian economy can benefit greatly from the US recession. The company's report states that India's macroeconomic performance has already recovered. The company also believes that india, the world's fifth-largest economy, has been operating independently without much connection to the global economic chain. This brokerage firm has issued a positive outlook on indian equity markets. Historically, the company says that the indian economy has not suffered much when the US economy has gone into recession. That is, whenever the US economy has been in recession, the indian economy has been growing. It has been reported that the indian economy has returned to the growth path from its decline despite global economic instability. The main reason for this is that the indian economy is not largely dependent on the US economy. Although india exports pharmaceuticals, IT services, jewelry, and petroleum products to the US, the US economic slowdown and Trump's tax hike will not have a major impact, it said. The indian stock market has suffered a major decline in the last six months as foreign investment companies have largely withdrawn their shares from the indian stock market. But now the stock market is back on the path to recovery. Foreign investors have withdrawn up to US $ 28 billion from the indian stock market since October. It has been stated that the indian stock market is currently recovering from the correction. It has been said that the value of the indian rupee will start strengthening again when the US economy goes into recession and thus the indian economy will go on a growth path in the second half of 2025. indian stock markets have fallen up to 10 percent from their historical highs and have corrected. Especially IT and auto stocks have fallen up to 20 percent.
Now, all these are starting to come back. Bernstein says that all these are evidence that the indian economy is growing positively. The company says that while the US government has warned of increasing import duties on indian goods, this will not have a major impact on the indian economy. Motilal oswal says that through these import duty warnings from the US, india is creating an opportunity to become self-reliant. It says that this is creating a path for india to produce all the goods it needs domestically. Not only that, it also says that india should use this opportunity to strengthen its trade with other countries. It has advised that india should use this period appropriately as it is already working towards the goal of self-reliance.
The US economy is currently facing a big problem due to various measures that trump may take after taking office. As various investors are selling their shares in the US stock market in large quantities, fears about the US economy have arisen all over the world. A recent study conducted by US financial institutions has said that the chance of the US economy going into recession within the next 12 months has increased by 43 percent. Many fear that the US economy may go into a state of instability due to increased unemployment and slow economic growth in the country. Meanwhile, experts say that the trump administration is imposing competitive tariffs on various countries further increasing this economic instability. Bernstein has said that the indian economy can benefit greatly from the US recession. The company's report states that India's macroeconomic performance has already recovered. The company also believes that india, the world's fifth-largest economy, has been operating independently without much connection to the global economic chain.
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